1. Kuthetsedwa kwa "mitengo yamagetsi yogwiritsidwa ntchito nthawi" yozikidwa pa mfundo kukukhala chizolowezi. Pofika kumapeto kwa chaka cha 2025, National Development and Reform Commission ndi National Energy Administration adapereka motsatizana "Chidziwitso Chochita Ntchito Yabwino Posaina ndi Kukwaniritsa Mapangano a Magetsi a Pakati ndi Aatali a 2026″ ndi "Malamulo Oyambira a Msika wa Magetsi a Pakati ndi Aatali", onse awiri omwe adanena momveka bwino kuti:
Mwachidule, omwe akutenga nawo mbali pamsika mwachindunji sadzagwiritsanso ntchito mitengo yamagetsi ya nthawi yogwiritsira ntchito yomwe yaperekedwa ndi boma.
Konzani njira yogulira magetsi yapakatikati ndi yayitali. Madera onse ayenera kuonetsetsa kuti mfundo za mitengo yamagetsi ya nthawi yogwiritsidwa ntchito ndi chigwa zikugwirizana ndi mitengo yamagetsi pamsika. Mwachidule, omwe akutenga nawo mbali pamsika mwachindunji sadzakhalanso pansi pa mitengo yamagetsi ya nthawi yogwiritsidwa ntchito yomwe yafotokozedwa ndi boma. Magulu onse awiri omwe ali ndi mapangano apakatikati ndi anthawi yayitali akulimbikitsidwa kusaina mapangano omwe amayankha kufunikira kwa msika.
Kwa mabungwe amalonda omwe akukhudzidwa mwachindunji ndi malonda amsika, sipadzakhalanso malamulo ongopeka pa mulingo ndi nthawi yamitengo yamagetsi yogwiritsidwa ntchito. Kwa ogwiritsa ntchito magetsi omwe amagwiritsa ntchito grid-agent, dipatimenti yamitengo ya boma idzagwirizanitsa ndikukonza kugawa kwa nthawi yayitali ndi nthawi yomwe si yayikulu komanso chiŵerengero cha kusinthasintha kwa mitengo kutengera mulingo wamtengo wamsika.
Pambuyo pake, mwatsatanetsatane wa zochitika zapakati ndi zazitali za 2026 m'zigawo za Liaoning, Sichuan, Shaanxi, Yunnan, Henan, ndi Shanxi, zinanenedwa momveka bwino kuti mulingo ndi nthawi yamitengo yamagetsi yogwiritsidwa ntchito sizidzaperekedwanso mwachinyengo kwa mabungwe amalonda omwe akuchita nawo malonda pamsika mwachindunji. Izi sizikutanthauza kuti mitengo yamagetsi yogwiritsidwa ntchito idzatha, koma m'malo mwake njira yawo yopangira yasintha kwambiri - kuchokera ku "mitengo ya boma" kupita ku "mitengo yamsika". Mothandizidwa ndi ubale wamagetsi ndi kufunikira kwa magetsi komanso zochitika pamsika, mitengo yamagetsi yapamwamba, yanthawi zonse, komanso yopanda pachimake idzapangidwa mwachilengedwe malinga ndi kufunikira kwa msika, ndipo kusinthasintha kwamitengo yamagetsi kudzawonetsa bwino momwe msika ulili panthawi yeniyeni.
Komabe, mitengo yamagetsi yogwiritsidwa ntchito pamsika (TOU) yabweretsanso mavuto awiri akuluakulu pa chitsanzo cha "peak-valley arbitrage" cha machitidwe osungira mphamvu zamafakitale ndi zamalonda.
Ndondomeko ya nthawi ndi yolimba, zomwe zimapangitsa kuti zikhale zovuta kukwaniritsa kufunikira kwa magetsi. Machitidwe osungira mphamvu nthawi zambiri amagwiritsa ntchito nthawi yokhazikika yochapira ndi kutulutsa mphamvu, zomwe zimapangitsa kuti zikhale zovuta kulumikizana ndi momwe ogwiritsa ntchito amagwiritsira ntchito magetsi. Makamaka pankhani ya "kusungira mphamvu ya photovoltaic +", kusowa kwa mphamvu zosinthira kungathe kupangitsa kuti magetsi asagwiritsidwe ntchito mokwanira kapena kulephera kukwaniritsa kufunikira kwa magetsi.
2) Kusinthasintha kwa mitengo yamagetsi kukukulirakulira, zomwe zimapangitsa kuti arbitrage ikhale yovuta kwambiri. Ndi kulumikizana pakati pa mitengo yamagetsi yogwiritsidwa ntchito nthawi ndi msika waposachedwa, mitengo yamagetsi imatha kusinthasintha pa ola limodzi kapena mphindi 15, ndipo mitengo yamagetsi yapamwamba imafika pa yuan imodzi/kWh. Munthawi yamagetsi okwera kwambiri, mitengo yamagetsi yoyipa imatha kuchitika. Njira zokhazikika zachikhalidwe zimavutika kuzolowera malo ovuta otere amitengo yamagetsi. Chifukwa chake, pansi pa njira yatsopano ya msika wamagetsi, kodi malo osungira mphamvu zamafakitale ndi zamalonda ayenera kufunafuna bwanji phindu latsopano?
II. Kuchokera ku "Peak-Valley Arbitrage" kupita ku "Microgrid Balancer" Zochitika kuchokera ku misika yamagetsi yokhwima ku Europe zikuwonetsa kuti kuchuluka kwa malonda kukakhala kwakukulu, njira zogwiritsira ntchito zimakula kwambiri komanso kufunika kwa njira zosungira mphamvu kumaonekera kwambiri. Udindo wawo ukusintha kuchoka pa "chida chosavuta cha arbitrage cha chigwa" kupita ku "balancer yanzeru ya ma microgrid ogawa a photovoltaic ndi magetsi".
1. Poland: Bilu yamagetsi yapakati ya ogwiritsa ntchito yatsika ndi 50%, ndipo ndalama za photovoltaic (PV) zakwera ndi zoposa 200%! Kuyambira mu 2025, Polish Electricity Exchange yakhazikitsa mitengo yamagetsi yosinthasintha, ndipo mitengo ikusinthasintha nthawi yeniyeni. Wogwiritsa ntchito wokhala ku Warsaw, likulu la dzikolo, adayika njira yosungira mphamvu ya Siggy yokhala ndi njira zowerengera nthawi za AI, ndikukhazikitsa microgrid yanzeru yosungira PV. Munthawi yamitengo yokhazikika yamagetsi, mtengo wa PV feed-in unali 0.22–0.44 zlotys pa kWh. Pambuyo posinthira ku mitengo yamagetsi yosinthasintha ndikuphatikiza njira yosungiramo yanzeru ya PV, kudzera munjira zosungira mphamvu ndi njira zowerengera nthawi zanzeru, zinali zotheka "kusunga magetsi" panthawi yotsika mtengo ndi "kutulutsa" nthawi yamitengo yokwera, kukwaniritsa kusunga ndalama zamagetsi ndikuwonjezera phindu. Deta yogwira ntchito ya chaka chimodzi ikuwonetsa kuti mtengo wogula magetsi wa wogwiritsa ntchito watsika kufika pafupifupi 0.55 zlotys pa kWh, kutsika kwa pafupifupi 50%; Mtengo wapakati wa PV feed-in wakwera kufika pa 1.09 zlotys pa kWh, ndalama zomwe amapeza zakwera ndi 220%-300%, ndipo kuchuluka kwa zomwe munthu amagwiritsa ntchito payokha kwakwera ndi zoposa 200%.
2. Sweden: Makina anzeru a PV-ESS amachepetsa ma bilu amagetsi a ogwiritsa ntchito ndi avareji ya 52.7%! Ngakhale kuti pulojekiti imodzi ku Poland ikhoza kukhala nkhani yokhayokha, ziwerengero kuchokera ku mapulojekiti opitilira 2,500 ku Sweden ndizoyimira kwambiri. Posachedwapa, Siger New Energy idachita kusanthula mwadongosolo deta yogwirira ntchito kuchokera ku mapulojekiti opitilira 2,500 anzeru a PV-ESS ku Sweden ndipo idapeza kuti ma bilu amagetsi a ogwiritsa ntchito atsika ndi avareji ya 70.3%! Msika wamagetsi ku Sweden wagawidwa m'magawo anayi (SE1-SE4) kutengera kapangidwe ka ntchito ya gridi, ndipo mapulojekiti odziyimira pawokha opitilira 2,500 amagawidwa m'magawo anayi awa. Ogwiritsa ntchito onse amaikidwa kuyambira otsika kwambiri mpaka apamwamba kwambiri, monga momwe chithunzi chili pansipa.
Deta ikuwonetsa kuti kutsika kwapakati pa mabilu amagetsi kwa ogwiritsa ntchito ndi 70.3%, ndi kutsika kwapakati kwa 52.7%. Kusiyana kumeneku sikuchokera ku kusokoneza kwa anthu ena, koma chifukwa chakuti ogwiritsa ntchito ena m'madera omwe mitengo yamagetsi imasinthasintha kwambiri apeza phindu lalikulu.
1. Kutumiza zinthu mwanzeru pogwiritsa ntchito AI: Kumvetsetsa mitengo yamagetsi ndi kagwiritsidwe ntchito ka magetsi kuti muchepetse ndalama komanso kuti muwonjezere mphamvu mu malo osinthasintha amagetsi sikungatheke popanda kulimbitsa kwambiri ukadaulo wa AI. Dongosolo lanzeru la photovoltaic ndi kusungira mphamvu limakwaniritsa izi zazikulu kudzera mu kuphatikiza ndi kuphunzira kolimbitsa zinthu zambiri:
1) Kuphunzira Kulemba Mbiri ya Katundu: Kuphunzira mosalekeza makhalidwe a kagwiritsidwe ntchito ka magetsi a polojekiti iliyonse, kuzindikira kuchuluka kwa katundu, kagwiritsidwe ntchito ka magetsi usiku, kusiyana pakati pa masiku a sabata ndi maholide, ndi zina zotero, kuti mupange mbiri ya katundu yomwe imakuyenererani kwambiri.
2) Kuneneratu za mphamvu ya photovoltaic: Phatikizani deta ya nyengo kuti mulosere molondola mphamvu ya photovoltaic;
3) Kuneneratu za momwe mitengo yamagetsi ikuyendera: Kuneneratu kusinthasintha kwa mitengo yamagetsi kutengera deta yamsika ndikupanga njira zabwino kwambiri zolipirira ndi kutulutsa magetsi;
4) Kukonza zinthu mosinthasintha komanso makonda osinthika: Kugwiritsa ntchito njira yolumikizira mitundu yambiri, kuphatikiza kuneneratu nyengo ndi kuyerekezera machitidwe a katundu, ndikupanga njira zabwino kwambiri zokonzekera nthawi kudzera mu kuphunzira kolimbikitsa komanso kuyerekezera thupi; nthawi yomweyo, kuthandizira kusintha kwa njira za tsiku ndi tsiku ndikulola kukonzekera kwapadera kutengera zomwe ogwiritsa ntchito amakonda. M'tsogolomu, pamene mitundu ya AI ikupitilizabe kusintha ndipo njira za algorithm zikukonzedwanso nthawi zonse, makina osungira mphamvu ndi mphamvu adzasintha kuchoka pa kukhala "ogwiritsidwa ntchito" kupita ku kukhala "ogwiritsidwa ntchito bwino", kuthandiza ogwiritsa ntchito ambiri kupeza kugwiritsa ntchito mphamvu mwanzeru komanso phindu la nthawi yayitali.
IV. Makina Osungirako Magetsi Opangidwa Mwanzeru ndi Osungira Mphamvu, Kulimbikitsa Mafakitale Opanda Mpweya Wokwanira! Dongosolo la Zaka Zisanu la 15 la China likupereka malingaliro omveka bwino pakukula kwa mphamvu zogawidwa komanso kumanga mafakitale ndi mapaki opanda mpweya wokwanira. Mu Disembala 2025, National Development and Reform Commission, Unduna wa Zamalonda ndi Ukadaulo Wazidziwitso, ndi National Energy Administration adalengeza pamodzi mapaki 52 opanda mpweya wokwanira dziko lonse. Mu Januwale 2026, Unduna wa Zamalonda ndi Ukadaulo Wazidziwitso ndi madipatimenti ena anayi adatulutsa "Maganizo Otsogolera Pakumanga Mafakitale Opanda Mpweya Wokwanira," akupereka lingaliro lakuti gulu la mafakitale opanda mpweya wokwanira lidzalimidwa ndikumangidwa m'mafakitale akuluakulu asanu ndi awiri, kuphatikiza ma photovoltaic, mabatire a lithiamu, ndi magalimoto, pofika chaka cha 2027; ndipo lidzakula kufika ku mafakitale akuluakulu 12 pofika chaka cha 2030. Zingathe kunenedweratu kuti mafakitale opanda mpweya wokwanira ndi mapaki okhala ndi "magetsi ambiri" adzakhala chimodzi mwazochitika zazikulu za mphamvu zatsopano mtsogolo. Ma model monga kulumikizana mwachindunji kwa magetsi obiriwira ndi ma microgrid anzeru adzabweretsa mwayi waukulu wopititsa patsogolo ndikukhala ma model ofunikira kwambiri pakukula kwa mphamvu zatsopano. Pansi pa zochitika ndi ma model awa, zofuna zawo zazikulu zimagwirizana kwambiri ndi za ogwiritsa ntchito ku Poland ndi Sweden: kukwaniritsa ndalama zabwino kwambiri zamagetsi m'malo ogulira magetsi osinthika omwe amayendetsedwa ndi msika. Zochitika kuchokera kumisika yakunja zikuwonetsa kuti ma microgrid anzeru a photovoltaic ndi osungira mphamvu amatha kuchepetsa bwino ndalama zamagetsi za ogwiritsa ntchito ndikuwonjezera phindu la mapulojekiti a photovoltaic; kuphatikiza apo, kusinthasintha kwamitengo yamagetsi kukakhala kwakukulu, zotsatira zake zimakhala zabwino kwambiri! Pakadali pano, malo opangira magetsi opitilira 17,000 padziko lonse lapansi agwiritsa ntchito ma model a AI, omwe akuphatikizapo zochitika zopezera mitengo yamagetsi yosinthika m'maiko 47, ndikupanga njira yogwiritsira ntchito AI ya magawo ambiri komanso yogwiritsidwa ntchito.
Mapeto
Tsalani bwino ndi mitengo yamagetsi yokhazikika yokhazikika yokhazikika pa nthawi yogwiritsira ntchito, ndipo takulandirani ku nthawi ya mitengo yamagetsi yokhazikika pamsika komanso yosinthasintha. Uku sikutha kwa mtengo wamagetsi a photovoltaic (PV) ndi makina osungira mphamvu, koma chiyambi chenicheni cha nthawi yamagetsi yanzeru. Kudzera mu ndondomeko ya AI ndi kugwirizanitsa ma microgrid, makina a PV ndi makina osungira mphamvu akusintha kuchoka pa "zipangizo zosungira mphamvu" kukhala "zolinganiza mphamvu zanzeru", zomwe zikugwira ntchito pakati pa kusinthasintha ndikusintha tsogolo kudzera mu kusintha.
Nthawi yotumizira: Januwale-23-2026